NCAA Football Analysis


2015 College Football Bowl Primers: Just one day closer

We’re almost at New Year’s Day. Can you feel it?

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: California Golden Bears (7-5) vs. Air Force Falcons (8-5). 2:30 PM ET, ESPN

Aw man, I was excited for a good Cal team. What happened?

They ran into the Pac-12, who mercilessly reminded them that they’re still Cal.

Cal loves passing, and Air Force loves running. How will that play out?

POINTS POINTS POINTS if you’re Air Force. Opponents averaged 4.8 YPC against Cal, and scored over two rushing touchdowns per game against the Bears.

For Cal, it might not be so POINTS POINTS POINTS. They averaged at least one pick every game, and face a stringent pass defence. Air Force allowed a touchdown every twenty passing plays, with is pretty good. You shouldn’t be surprised they’re strengths are locking down the aerial assualt [vaudeville hook drags me stage left]

So it’s doom and gloom for Cal?

Let’s not be hasty. Air Force ain’t played nobody. Besides Boise, they haven’t won against a team that finished above .500. All five of their losses were against teams with winning records, and includes a sad loss to New Mexico. Even against common opponents, Cal has the edge. They thrashed San Diego State 35-7, who later defeated Air Force 27-24.

How many times does Sonny Dykes’ Wikipedia page refer to him having a losing record as a head coach?

Three times. There’s a very bitter Louisiana Tech fan out there.

Winner: Cal

Russell Athletic Bowl: 10 North Carolina Tar Heels (11-2) vs. 17 Baylor Bears (9-3). 5:30 PM EST, ESPN

Isn’t the Russell Athletic Bowl the wrong spot for our first top 25 matchup of the bowl season?

How dare you. The Russell Athletic/Blockbuster/Carquest/Visit Florida Tangerine/Champs Sports Bowl is one of our finest traditions. Just look at the legacy this bowl game has built since 1990!

  • Illinois scoring 63 points in a regulation game against Virginia in 1999. They haven’t scored over 50 against a Power Five school (not named Indiana) since then.
  • Maryland vs. Purdue
  • The beginning of Georgia Tech’s bowl win drought

Wasn’t Baylor supposed to be a playoff contender? What happened?

Turns out half of the Big XII is make believe. You can just put “Texas” followed by some sort of smart sounding adjective and be accepted by the conference.

And what’s North Carolina’s deal?

They were better than a bunch of 8-4 teams in the ACC, which is more so a sign of life rather than an indicator of quality.

Let’s be simple. Who’s going to have the advantage, and who will receive more undeserved preseason hype next year?

The advantage is Baylor’s. North Carolina’s main weakness is their rushing defence, with 4.8 yards per carry allowed and 21 touchdowns. Baylor’s main strength is their rushing attack, with 5.7 YPC, 300 yards per game, and 34 rushing touchdowns scored. UNC also allows opponents to convert 43% of their third downs, which shouldn’t be a problem for Baylor who convert 46%.



Winner: Baylor

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: Nevada Wolfpack (6-6) vs. Colorado State Rams (7-5). 7:30 PM EST

Isn’t this just a regular Mountain West game disguised as a bowl game?

Uh, no. Nova Home Loans is an absolutely legitimate service. I use Nova Home Loans every day. I love Nova Home Loans.

There must be a lot of common opponents. Who wins that matchup?

CSU lost to Utah State and San Diego State worse, didn’t beat New Mexico and Fresno State as nicely, but they didn’t lose to Wyoming. Nevada beat UNLV though. The lesson? God, both of these teams are bad.

Who wins in a battle of wolves versus rams?

According to this video, it’s a stalemate

This may or may not be exactly how this game will play out

Winner: Colorado State

Advocare V-100 Texas Bowl: 20 LSU Tigers (8-3) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5). 9 PM EST, ESPN

Texas Tech is doomed, aren’t they?

Don’t be so quick to count them out. LSU is suffering from Crimson Tide Fever, losing two out of their three games since playing Bama. It’s also affecting super human Leonard Fournette, who has two games below 150 yards, only two touchdowns, and two fumbles since. Before Bama, he had zero games below 150, 12 touchdowns, and one fumble. Bama literally kills. If the Tigers haven’t taken their Advocare, TTU could end up as surprise winners.


No, but it’s fun to hope. TTU gets gashed for 5.9 YPC, and considering the gap between the SEC and the Big XII, it’s going to be hard to stop Fournette. He’s going to gain three yards just by stepping on the field.

Texas Tech has won this bowl twice before. Will history help them?

Foutnette is literally en route to the Texas Tech archives to destroy that history. Not because he hates learning, but because he just needs to get his point across.

Winner: LSU

And that’s all! See you tomorrow!


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This entry was posted on December 29, 2015 by in Uncategorized.
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